Rondo Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Severe burden reaches 17%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The filing record is not thin: 128 evictions over 7 years of observation. Cost burden runs 52% here against 47.3% across Ramsey County.

At $1,122 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of St. Paul commands. The worst year on record was 2010, when 2.8% of renter households were served.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.