Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Lily Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate , Stillwater
Tract 27163070604 · Washington County, MN · pop 4,037 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 27163070604 sits in the Lily Lake area of Stillwater, MN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. Population here is 4,037. Cost burden runs 56% here against 44.0% across Washington County.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,575
Renter share17.8%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate12.5%
Median income$105,982
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Stillwater and the region
Centroid at 45.0472, -92.8484 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lily Lake scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Stillwater
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
12.5% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$1,698 rent vs county FMR
5.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Stillwater
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Stillwater
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Stillwater
5.3
How Lily Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 26
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lily Lake. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.8%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 5.1%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lily Lake
15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 3.1/10.
Food insecurity runs 7.8% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Washington County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.
Housing insecurity runs 6.6% against 14.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.4/10.
Average gross rent is $1,698, close to the Stillwater average. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $105,982.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27163070604
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070604?
Census tract 27163070604 in the Lily Lake neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27163070604?
Median gross rent is $1,698/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070604?
12.5% of residents in tract 27163070604 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,037.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070604?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 37th, minority 33th, housing 26th.
Q5
Is tract 27163070604 considered part of Lily Lake?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27163070604 fall within Lily Lake (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 27163070604 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27163070604 compare to Stillwater overall?
Tract 27163070604 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Stillwater at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Stillwater; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Stillwater
Top eight tracts in Stillwater ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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