Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,159 of 84,120 nationally
Lafayette Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Louis
Tract 29510123200 · St. Louis city, MO · pop 2,878 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 29510123200 runs through the Lafayette Square neighborhood of St. Louis. With 2,878 residents, it scores 5.8/10 for landlords. It lands near the 68th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 39% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $978 a month while the average household earns $78,421 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 50% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,540
Renter share50.0%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$78,421
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
36
th percentile
Low
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Louis and the region
Centroid at 38.6133, -90.2138 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lafayette Square scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Louis
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$978 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Louis
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Louis
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Louis
5.0
How Lafayette Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 10%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 14%Grade C
- 86%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 441Total filings over 13 yrs
- 4.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.7%Peak (2004)
- 23Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 56% over the past 13 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 226Total filings 2020-21
- 2.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.19×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.8%Housing insecurity
- 11.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 11.3%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 30.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lafayette Square
The heaviest input here is economic stress at 5.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the St. Louis City County average of 5.8 and above the Missouri statewide average of 4.8. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 1.19x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, roughly back to the pre-pandemic baseline.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 29510123200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29510123200?
Census tract 29510123200 in the Lafayette Square neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29510123200?
Median gross rent is $978/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29510123200?
22.9% of residents in tract 29510123200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,878.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29510123200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 10th, minority 58th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 29510123200 considered part of Lafayette Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29510123200 fall within Lafayette Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29510123200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 441 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 29510123200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.84% of renter households, peaking at 8.7% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29510123200 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.19× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29510123200 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29510123200 compare to St. Louis overall?
Tract 29510123200 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of St. Louis at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29510123200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 86% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Louis
Top eight tracts in St. Louis ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MO
Midtown
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Old North Saint Louis
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Mount Pleasant
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
College Hill
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Wells Goodfellow
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Columbus Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Covenant Blu Grand Center
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Carr Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
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