Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally
Howell Eviction Risk: Lower , Shiremanstown
Tract 42041011200 · Cumberland County, PA · pop 1,751 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
How risky is the Howell neighborhood of Shiremanstown for landlords? Census tract 42041011200 scores 5.5/10, the Moderate tier. That is riskier than roughly 56% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 42% of renter households, a severe level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $992 a month against an average household income of $69,505 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units751
Renter share32.6%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate9.6%
Median income$69,505
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Shiremanstown and the region
Centroid at 40.2224, -76.9556 · click any tract to drill in
Why Howell scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
9.6% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$992 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shiremanstown
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.2
How Howell compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 58%Household composition
- 31%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 20Total filings over 3 yrs
- 2.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.4%Peak (2003)
- 3Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Howell. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Howell
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Shiremanstown, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cumberland County average of 5.1 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 20 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 2.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.4% of renter households in 2003.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 42041011200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42041011200?
Census tract 42041011200 in the Howell neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42041011200?
Median gross rent is $992/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42041011200?
9.6% of residents in tract 42041011200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,751.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42041011200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 58th, minority 31th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 42041011200 considered part of Howell?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42041011200 fall within Howell (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42041011200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 42041011200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.53% of renter households, peaking at 3.4% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42041011200 compare to Shiremanstown overall?
Tract 42041011200 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Shiremanstown at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shiremanstown; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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