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Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Howell Eviction Risk: Moderate , Shiremanstown

Tract 42041011200 · Cumberland County, PA · pop 1,751 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

42041011200 is a census tract in the Howell area of Shiremanstown, PA. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,751 residents. Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 19% Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units751
Renter share32.6%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate9.6%
Median income$69,505

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Howell
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Shiremanstown
Moderate
Within county
74 th percentile
Rank, 74th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 55 tracts In Cumberland County
Elevated
Within state
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#1,298 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Shiremanstown and the region

Centroid at 40.2224, -76.9556 · click any tract to drill in

Why Howell scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
9.6% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$992 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shiremanstown
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.2

How Howell compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Howell risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 0112004.3Shiremanstownparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 46

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 20Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 2.53%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.4%Peak (2003)
  • 3Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2004
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 42041011200
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Howell. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Howell

The main counterweight is supply constraint at 2.2/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.4/10. 42% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Cumberland County average of 35.8%.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.6/10. The filing record is not thin: 20 evictions over 3 years of observation.

It sits 0.8 points above the Cumberland County average of 4.1. The worst year on record was 2003, when 3.4% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 2.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $69,505, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Average gross rent is $992, close to the Shiremanstown average.

33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 42041011200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42041011200?

Census tract 42041011200 in the Howell neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42041011200?

Median gross rent is $992/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42041011200?

9.6% of residents in tract 42041011200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,751.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42041011200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 58th, minority 31th, housing 38th.
Q5

Is tract 42041011200 considered part of Howell?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42041011200 fall within Howell (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42041011200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 42041011200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.53% of renter households, peaking at 3.4% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42041011200 compare to Shiremanstown overall?

Tract 42041011200 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Shiremanstown at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shiremanstown; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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