Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Howell Eviction Risk: Lower , Shiremanstown
Tract 42041011305 · Cumberland County, PA · pop 6,996 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Census tract 42041011305 covers part of the Howell area of Cumberland County, PA, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.3/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units2,434
Renter share27.6%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate5.4%
Median income$107,179
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
26
th percentile
Low
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
National
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Shiremanstown and the region
Centroid at 40.2360, -76.9851 · click any tract to drill in
Why Howell scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Shiremanstown
3.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
5.4% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,517 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shiremanstown
3.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shiremanstown
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.0
How Howell compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 45%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 118Total filings over 3 yrs
- 7.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.8%Peak (2003)
- 39Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Howell. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Howell
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.6/10. Against Cumberland County at 35.8%, 29% of renters here are cost-burdened.
The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 118 eviction filings across 3 observed years.
It sits 0.8 points below the Cumberland County average of 4.1. The worst year on record was 2003, when 8.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10. Against average income of $107,179, annual rent is just 17%. Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 1.3 points cooler.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Average gross rent runs $1,517 a month.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 42041011305
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42041011305?
Census tract 42041011305 in the Howell neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42041011305?
Median gross rent is $1,517/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42041011305?
5.4% of residents in tract 42041011305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,996.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42041011305?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 26th, minority 45th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 42041011305 considered part of Howell?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42041011305 fall within Howell (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42041011305?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 118 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 42041011305 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.53% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42041011305 compare to Shiremanstown overall?
Tract 42041011305 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Shiremanstown at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shiremanstown; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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