Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,113 of 84,120 nationally
Howell Eviction Risk: Lower , Shiremanstown
Tract 42041011305 · Cumberland County, PA · pop 6,996 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
With a score of 4.8/10, tract 42041011305 in Howell in Shiremanstown ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 6,996 residents. That is riskier than about 31% of US census tracts.
About 29% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,517 monthly, set against $107,179 in average yearly household income, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 28% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2.6
Lower
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units2,434
Renter share27.6%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate5.4%
Median income$107,179
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
33
th percentile
Low
Within state
29
th percentile
Low
National
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Shiremanstown and the region
Centroid at 40.2360, -76.9851 · click any tract to drill in
Why Howell scores 2.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Shiremanstown
3.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
5.4% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,517 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shiremanstown
3.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shiremanstown
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shiremanstown
5.0
How Howell compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 22%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 45%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 118Total filings over 3 yrs
- 7.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.8%Peak (2003)
- 39Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Howell. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Howell
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Shiremanstown, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Cumberland County average of 5.1 and below the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 118 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 7.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 8.8% of renter households in 2003.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 37th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 42041011305
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42041011305?
Census tract 42041011305 in the Howell neighborhood scores 2.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42041011305?
Median gross rent is $1,517/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42041011305?
5.4% of residents in tract 42041011305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,996.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42041011305?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 26th, minority 45th, housing 72th.
Q5
Is tract 42041011305 considered part of Howell?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42041011305 fall within Howell (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42041011305?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 118 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 42041011305 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.53% of renter households, peaking at 8.8% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42041011305 compare to Shiremanstown overall?
Tract 42041011305 scores 2.6/10, lower than the parent city of Shiremanstown at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shiremanstown; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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