Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally
Bexley Eviction Risk: Lower , Manchester
Tract 51041100209 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,499 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Bexley in Manchester anchors census tract 51041100209, which lands at 6.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
49% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,361 a month while the average household earns $83,342 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 20% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,746
Renter share19.9%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$83,342
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manchester and the region
Centroid at 37.4772, -77.5439 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bexley scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manchester
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,361 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manchester
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manchester
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manchester
7.4
How Bexley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 70%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 500Total filings over 7 yrs
- 18.18%Avg annual filing rate
- 23.6%Peak (2011)
- 62Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.0%Food insecurity
- 10.3%SNAP enrollment
- 7.4%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bexley
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manchester, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 500 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 18.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 23.6% of renter households in 2011.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 37th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100209?
Census tract 51041100209 in the Bexley neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100209?
Median gross rent is $1,361/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100209?
9.0% of residents in tract 51041100209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,499.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 70th, minority 64th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100209 considered part of Bexley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100209 fall within Bexley (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 500 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.18% of renter households, peaking at 23.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100209 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100209 compare to Manchester overall?
Tract 51041100209 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Manchester at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manchester; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manchester
Top eight tracts in Manchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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