Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #16,850 of 84,120 nationally
Chesterfield Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Manchester
Tract 51041100107 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 2,511 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Tract 51041100107 covers the Chesterfield Village area of Manchester in Virginia. Home to 2,511 residents, it scores 7.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 98% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
65% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,386 a month against an average household income of $38,611 a year, roughly 43% of income at the averages. Renters make up 81% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 19%
Tract context
Occupied units1,284
Renter share80.8%
SVI overall0.92
Poverty rate35.0%
Median income$38,611
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manchester and the region
Centroid at 37.5082, -77.5365 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chesterfield Village scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manchester
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
35.0% poverty · this tract
8.8
Supply constraint
$1,386 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manchester
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manchester
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manchester
7.4
How Chesterfield Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 92
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 92%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 69%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 3,156Total filings over 7 yrs
- 56.50%Avg annual filing rate
- 68.9%Peak (2012)
- 396Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.5%Housing insecurity
- 15.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.2%Food insecurity
- 26.3%SNAP enrollment
- 15.1%Transit barriers
- 16.6%No health insurance
- 22.0%Frequent mental distress
- 36.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chesterfield Village
What moves this score most is economic stress at 8.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manchester, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores well above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3,156 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 56.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 68.9% of renter households in 2012.
In CDC survey modeling, about 22.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100107
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100107?
Census tract 51041100107 in the Chesterfield Village neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100107?
Median gross rent is $1,386/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100107?
35.0% of residents in tract 51041100107 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,511.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100107?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 92th, minority 84th, housing 69th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100107 considered part of Chesterfield Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100107 fall within Chesterfield Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100107?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3,156 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100107 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 56.50% of renter households, peaking at 68.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100107 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100107 compare to Manchester overall?
Tract 51041100107 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Manchester at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manchester; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manchester
Top eight tracts in Manchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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