Tract 51041100509 Eviction Risk: Lower

The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 81.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.6/10.

Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.

Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. The filing record is not thin: 152 evictions over 7 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2011, when 12.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 9.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 6% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.4/10.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.