Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #46,312 of 84,120 nationally
Watch Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Meadowbrook
Tract 51041100805 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,640 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51041100805 sits in Watch Run in Meadowbrook, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.3/10. It lands near the 82nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 37% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,803 a month against an average household income of $76,623 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. Renters make up 19% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,843
Renter share19.3%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate14.8%
Median income$76,623
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Meadowbrook and the region
Centroid at 37.4305, -77.4844 · click any tract to drill in
Why Watch Run scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Meadowbrook
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.8% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,803 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.4
How Watch Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 524Total filings over 7 yrs
- 22.40%Avg annual filing rate
- 28.2%Peak (2013)
- 57Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.4%Housing insecurity
- 11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.0%Food insecurity
- 18.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.4%Transit barriers
- 14.2%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 35.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Watch Run
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 6.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Meadowbrook, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 524 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 22.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 28.2% of renter households in 2013.
In CDC survey modeling, about 18.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100805
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100805?
Census tract 51041100805 in the Watch Run neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100805?
Median gross rent is $1,803/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100805?
14.8% of residents in tract 51041100805 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,640.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100805?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 86th, minority 76th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100805 considered part of Watch Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100805 fall within Watch Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100805?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 524 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100805 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.40% of renter households, peaking at 28.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100805 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100805 compare to Meadowbrook overall?
Tract 51041100805 scores 3.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Meadowbrook at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Meadowbrook; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Meadowbrook
Top eight tracts in Meadowbrook ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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