Neighborhood · Ranked #26,932 of 84,120 nationally

Dorchester Eviction Risk: Moderate , Meadowbrook

Tract 51041100804 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,501 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 51041100804 belongs to the Dorchester area of Meadowbrook, Virginia. It is home to 4,501 residents and scores 6.4/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 66% of renter households, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,466 a month against an average household income of $81,080 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 24% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 8% Owners 76%

Tract context

Occupied units1,736

Renter share24.0%

SVI overall0.76

Poverty rate7.0%

Median income$81,080

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Meadowbrook and the region

Centroid at 37.4514, -77.4707 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dorchester scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Meadowbrook

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.3

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

7.0% poverty · this tract

1.7

Supply constraint

$1,466 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Meadowbrook

6.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Meadowbrook

6.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Meadowbrook

6.4

How Dorchester compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 76

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

73%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
80%Racial/ethnic minority
46%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

266Total filings over 7 yrs
8.33%Avg annual filing rate
10.7%Peak (2015)
42Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2010 to 2016

Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.3%Housing insecurity
9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
17.0%Food insecurity
13.6%SNAP enrollment
9.0%Transit barriers
11.3%No health insurance
16.1%Frequent mental distress
31.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dorchester

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 6.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Meadowbrook, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Chesterfield County average of 5.8 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 76th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 266 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 8.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.7% of renter households in 2015.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51041100804

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100804?

Census tract 51041100804 in the Dorchester neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51041100804?

Median gross rent is $1,466/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100804?

7.0% of residents in tract 51041100804 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,501.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100804?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 88th, minority 80th, housing 46th.

Is tract 51041100804 considered part of Dorchester?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100804 fall within Dorchester (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100804?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 266 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100804 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.33% of renter households, peaking at 10.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51041100804 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51041100804 compare to Meadowbrook overall?

Tract 51041100804 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Meadowbrook at 5.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Meadowbrook; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Meadowbrook

Top eight tracts in Meadowbrook ranked by composite eviction-risk score.