Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,757 of 84,120 nationally
Bucknell Manor Eviction Risk: Lower , Groveton
Tract 51059415300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,088 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Census tract 51059415300 belongs to Bucknell Manor in Groveton, Virginia. It is home to 4,088 residents and scores 6.1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 58% of renter households, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,099 a month while the average household earns $106,979 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 32% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,693
Renter share32.5%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate6.8%
Median income$106,979
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
50
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Groveton and the region
Centroid at 38.7668, -77.0699 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bucknell Manor scores 2.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Groveton
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.8% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,099 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Groveton
5.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Groveton
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Groveton
6.1
How Bucknell Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 29Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.89%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2012)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 60% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.8%Food insecurity
- 6.5%SNAP enrollment
- 5.7%Transit barriers
- 9.0%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bucknell Manor
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Groveton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 78th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 29 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 2.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.5% of renter households in 2012.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059415300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059415300?
Census tract 51059415300 in the Bucknell Manor neighborhood scores 2.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059415300?
Median gross rent is $2,099/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059415300?
6.8% of residents in tract 51059415300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,088.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059415300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 88th, minority 68th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 51059415300 considered part of Bucknell Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059415300 fall within Bucknell Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059415300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 29 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059415300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.89% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059415300 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059415300 compare to Groveton overall?
Tract 51059415300 scores 2.8/10, lower than the parent city of Groveton at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Groveton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Groveton
Top eight tracts in Groveton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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