Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Gum Springs Eviction Risk: Lower , Fort Hunt
Tract 51059415500 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,337 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51059415500 is a census tract in the Gum Springs area of Fort Hunt, VA. It scores 3.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,337. At $824 a month, rents run 76% under what the rest of Fort Hunt commands.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units2,317
Renter share21.2%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate9.2%
Median income$165,417
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
48
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fort Hunt and the region
Centroid at 38.7407, -77.0704 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gum Springs scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fort Hunt
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.2% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$824 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fort Hunt
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fort Hunt
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fort Hunt
3.3
How Gum Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 83%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 51%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 97Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.98%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.4%Peak (2016)
- 32Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 88% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.9%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 25.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gum Springs
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. Cost burden runs 31% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.3/10.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Food insecurity runs 8.9% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 97 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.4% of renter households.
In a typical year about 3.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 21% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059415500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059415500?
Census tract 51059415500 in the Gum Springs neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059415500?
Median gross rent is $824/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059415500?
9.2% of residents in tract 51059415500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,337.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059415500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 83th, minority 56th, housing 51th.
Q5
Is tract 51059415500 considered part of Gum Springs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059415500 fall within Gum Springs (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059415500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 97 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059415500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.98% of renter households, peaking at 4.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059415500 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059415500 compare to Fort Hunt overall?
Tract 51059415500 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Fort Hunt at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fort Hunt; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fort Hunt
Top eight tracts in Fort Hunt ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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