Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Mount Vernon Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51059416000 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,267 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059416000 covers part of the Mount Vernon Manor area of Mount Vernon, VA, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,267 residents. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 71% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units2,236
Renter share49.8%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate9.1%
Median income$106,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mount Vernon and the region
Centroid at 38.7203, -77.1062 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mount Vernon Manor scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mount Vernon
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.1% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,577 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mount Vernon
9.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mount Vernon
5.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mount Vernon
6.7
How Mount Vernon Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 62%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 434Total filings over 4 yrs
- 17.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 25.6%Peak (2011)
- 53Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 66% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.8%Food insecurity
- 10.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 27.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mount Vernon Manor
34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9.3/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Court records carry 434 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
It sits 0.6 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Filings peaked in 2011 at 25.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 17.6% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $106,250, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059416000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059416000?
Census tract 51059416000 in the Mount Vernon Manor neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059416000?
Median gross rent is $1,577/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059416000?
9.1% of residents in tract 51059416000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,267.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059416000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 76th, minority 74th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 51059416000 considered part of Mount Vernon Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059416000 fall within Mount Vernon Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059416000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 434 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059416000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.60% of renter households, peaking at 25.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059416000 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059416000 compare to Mount Vernon overall?
Tract 51059416000 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Mount Vernon at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mount Vernon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mount Vernon
Top eight tracts in Mount Vernon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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