Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Heron Pond / Pond Spice Eviction Risk: Lower , Burke Centre
Tract 51059432201 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,560 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51059432201 covers part of the Heron Pond / Pond Spice area of Burke Centre, VA, and scores 3.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units967
Renter share43.4%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$130,089
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
44
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Burke Centre and the region
Centroid at 38.7918, -77.2982 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heron Pond / Pond Spice scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Burke Centre
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$2,283 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Burke Centre
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Burke Centre
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Burke Centre
3.4
How Heron Pond / Pond Spice compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 80Total filings over 4 yrs
- 4.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.6%Peak (2013)
- 22Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 214% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.4%Food insecurity
- 5.2%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 12.8%Frequent mental distress
- 20.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heron Pond / Pond Spice
Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 35% of renters here are cost-burdened.
SNAP participation runs 5.2% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.4% against 17.8% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 80 evictions over 4 years of observation. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
At $2,283 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Burke Centre commands. The worst year on record was 2013, when 6.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059432201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059432201?
Census tract 51059432201 in the Heron Pond / Pond Spice neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059432201?
Median gross rent is $2,283/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059432201?
4.9% of residents in tract 51059432201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,560.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059432201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 14th, minority 68th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51059432201 considered part of Heron Pond / Pond Spice?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059432201 fall within Heron Pond / Pond Spice (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059432201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 80 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059432201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.12% of renter households, peaking at 6.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059432201 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059432201 compare to Burke Centre overall?
Tract 51059432201 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Burke Centre at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Burke eviction risk Centre; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Burke Centre
Top eight tracts in Burke Centre ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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