Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally
Lincolnia Park Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 51059452502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,338 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 6/10, tract 51059452502 in the Lincolnia Park area of Lincolnia, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,338 residents. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, around two-thirds of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 49%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units1,409
Renter share75.6%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate17.6%
Median income$75,718
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
90
th percentile
Very High
Within state
94
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lincolnia and the region
Centroid at 38.8153, -77.1494 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincolnia Park scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.6% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,945 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lincolnia
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lincolnia
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lincolnia
5.4
How Lincolnia Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 87%Racial/ethnic minority
- 51%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 891Total filings over 4 yrs
- 17.97%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.6%Peak (2011)
- 174Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 35% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.6%Housing insecurity
- 11.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.8%Food insecurity
- 17.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.5%Transit barriers
- 15.1%No health insurance
- 16.4%Frequent mental distress
- 29.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincolnia Park
Severe burden reaches 37%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.
76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10.
It sits 1.7 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 891 filings here across 4 tracked years. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10.
Average gross rent is $1,945, 9% below the Lincolnia average. The worst year on record was 2011, when 21.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 18.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059452502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059452502?
Census tract 51059452502 in the Lincolnia Park neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059452502?
Median gross rent is $1,945/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059452502?
17.6% of residents in tract 51059452502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,338.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059452502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 39th, minority 87th, housing 51th.
Q5
Is tract 51059452502 considered part of Lincolnia Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059452502 fall within Lincolnia Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059452502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 891 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059452502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.97% of renter households, peaking at 21.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059452502 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059452502 compare to Lincolnia overall?
Tract 51059452502 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Lincolnia at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lincolnia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lincolnia
Top eight tracts in Lincolnia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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