Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Sun Valley Eviction Risk: Lower , Wolf Trap
Tract 51059460200 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,003 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 51059460200 covers part of the Sun Valley area of Wolf Trap, VA, and scores 3.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,003. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 72% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,372
Renter share3.4%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate2.8%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Wolf Trap and the region
Centroid at 38.9274, -77.2889 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sun Valley scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Wolf Trap
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,479 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Wolf Trap
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Wolf Trap
2.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Wolf Trap
5.3
How Sun Valley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 0%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 5Total filings over 3 yrs
- 2.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.9%Peak (2012)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 100% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sun Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.1%Housing insecurity
- 2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.3%Food insecurity
- 2.7%SNAP enrollment
- 3.2%Transit barriers
- 3.7%No health insurance
- 10.4%Frequent mental distress
- 20.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sun Valley
The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 50.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. SNAP participation runs 2.7% against 15.2% nationally. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 5 evictions over 3 years of observation. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.7% against 11.3% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 2.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.8% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 3% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059460200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059460200?
Census tract 51059460200 in the Sun Valley neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059460200?
Median gross rent is $3,479/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059460200?
2.8% of residents in tract 51059460200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,003.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059460200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 22th, minority 39th, housing 0th.
Q5
Is tract 51059460200 considered part of Sun Valley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059460200 fall within Sun Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059460200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 5 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059460200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.84% of renter households, peaking at 2.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059460200 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059460200 compare to Wolf Trap overall?
Tract 51059460200 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Wolf Trap at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Wolf Trap; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Wolf Trap
Top eight tracts in Wolf Trap ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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