Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Falls Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Idylwood
Tract 51059471303 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,570 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059471303 sits in the Falls Hill area of Idylwood, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. Population here is 3,570. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units1,678
Renter share57.9%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$95,859
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Idylwood and the region
Centroid at 38.8963, -77.2092 · click any tract to drill in
Why Falls Hill scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Idylwood
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,111 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Idylwood
4.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Idylwood
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Idylwood
4.0
How Falls Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 15%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 52%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 158Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.9%Peak (2013)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 52% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Falls Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.9%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.9%No health insurance
- 13.0%Frequent mental distress
- 21.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Falls Hill
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10. 17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 46% of renters here are cost-burdened. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.
SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.2% against 17.8% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 158 filings here across 4 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 4.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059471303
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059471303?
Census tract 51059471303 in the Falls Hill neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059471303?
Median gross rent is $2,111/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059471303?
8.5% of residents in tract 51059471303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,570.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059471303?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 15th, household 47th, minority 56th, housing 52th.
Q5
Is tract 51059471303 considered part of Falls Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059471303 fall within Falls Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059471303?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 158 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059471303 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.74% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059471303 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059471303 compare to Idylwood overall?
Tract 51059471303 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Idylwood at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Idylwood; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Idylwood
Top eight tracts in Idylwood ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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