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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Cooktown Eviction Risk: Lower , Dranesville

Tract 51059480503 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,307 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Cooktown in Dranesville anchors census tract 51059480503, which lands at 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #31,124 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 45% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,648 monthly, set against $187,313 in average yearly household income, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 5% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 3% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,165
Renter share5.2%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$187,313

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Cooktown
Very Low
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Dranesville
Very High
Within county
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#232 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dranesville and the region

Centroid at 38.9879, -77.3712 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cooktown scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,648 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
5.6

How Cooktown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cooktown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 480503Dranesville: 3.43.4Dranesvilleparent cityCounty: 1.51.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 5

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 20Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 7.79%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.0%Peak (2011)
  • 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594805032011: 7 filings (8.97/100 renter HHs)2012: 3 filings (3.85/100 renter HHs)2013: 7 filings (8.97/100 renter HHs)2016: 3 filings (9.38/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 57% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Cooktown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cooktown

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dranesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 5th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 5.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059480503

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480503?

Census tract 51059480503 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059480503?

Median gross rent is $2,648/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480503?

1.2% of residents in tract 51059480503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,307.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 80th, minority 50th, housing 3th.
Q5

Is tract 51059480503 considered part of Cooktown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480503 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480503?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.79% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059480503 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059480503 compare to Dranesville overall?

Tract 51059480503 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Dranesville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville

Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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