Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Seneca Gate Eviction Risk: Lower , Dranesville
Tract 51059480501 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,011 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 3.4/10, tract 51059480501 in the Seneca Gate area of Dranesville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,011 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 0%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 98%
Tract context
Occupied units969
Renter share2.4%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate2.4%
Median income$250,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dranesville and the region
Centroid at 38.9993, -77.3612 · click any tract to drill in
Why Seneca Gate scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
5.6
How Seneca Gate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.63%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.3%Peak (2012)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 75% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.0%Housing insecurity
- 3.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.4%Food insecurity
- 3.2%SNAP enrollment
- 3.6%Transit barriers
- 4.3%No health insurance
- 11.0%Frequent mental distress
- 19.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Seneca Gate
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10. Disability prevalence runs 19.2% against 31.5% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 3.2% against 15.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.3/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points.
The filing record is not thin: 14 evictions over 4 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2012 at 12.3% of renter households.
In a typical year about 6.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 29% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 2% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.8 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480501?
Census tract 51059480501 in the Seneca Gate neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480501?
2.4% of residents in tract 51059480501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,011.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 13th, minority 52th, housing 1th.
Q4
Is tract 51059480501 considered part of Seneca Gate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480501 fall within Seneca Gate (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.63% of renter households, peaking at 12.3% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059480501 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059480501 compare to Dranesville overall?
Tract 51059480501 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Dranesville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville
Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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