Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Cooktown Eviction Risk: Lower , Dranesville
Tract 51059480502 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,319 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059480502 sits in the Cooktown area of Dranesville, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.5/10. It is home to 6,319 residents. Cost burden runs 72% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units1,925
Renter share8.8%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate3.8%
Median income$192,083
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
29
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dranesville and the region
Centroid at 38.9943, -77.3832 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cooktown scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,056 rent vs county FMR
8.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
5.6
How Cooktown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 7%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.6%Peak (2011)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 67% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cooktown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.5%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.6%Food insecurity
- 3.5%SNAP enrollment
- 3.9%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 11.7%Frequent mental distress
- 20.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cooktown
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 32.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10.
The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.2/10. Food insecurity runs 5.6% against 17.8% nationally.
Housing insecurity runs 5.5% against 14.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 14 evictions over 4 years of observation.
It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 2.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 31% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 9% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480502?
Census tract 51059480502 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480502?
Median gross rent is $3,056/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480502?
3.8% of residents in tract 51059480502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,319.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 40th, minority 41th, housing 7th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480502 considered part of Cooktown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480502 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.13% of renter households, peaking at 3.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480502 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480502 compare to Dranesville overall?
Tract 51059480502 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Dranesville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville
Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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