Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 51059481000 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,947 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51059481000 is a census tract in the Herndon Heights area of Hutchison, VA. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,947 residents. It sits 3.0 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,965
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate15.2%
Median income$105,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Herndon and the region
Centroid at 38.9637, -77.4109 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon Heights scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.2% poverty · this tract
3.8
Supply constraint
$2,305 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
9.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
6.4
How Herndon Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 73
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 70%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 315Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.0%Peak (2016)
- 94Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 32% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Herndon Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.5%Housing insecurity
- 10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.1%Food insecurity
- 16.9%SNAP enrollment
- 11.4%Transit barriers
- 17.6%No health insurance
- 16.1%Frequent mental distress
- 29.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Herndon Heights
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10. Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
47% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 315 filings here across 4 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 10.0% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Average gross rent is $2,305, close to the Hutchison average.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $105,125. 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059481000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059481000?
Census tract 51059481000 in the Herndon Heights neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059481000?
Median gross rent is $2,305/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059481000?
15.2% of residents in tract 51059481000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,947.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059481000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 64th, minority 86th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51059481000 considered part of Herndon Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059481000 fall within Herndon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059481000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 315 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059481000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.53% of renter households, peaking at 10.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059481000 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059481000 compare to Herndon overall?
Tract 51059481000 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Herndon at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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