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Neighborhood · Herndon, VA

Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 17,069 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.4/10 · range 4.7–6.2

Herndon Heights is a hispanic-white neighborhood in Herndon with 3 census tracts and a population of 17,069 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.4/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 36% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 15% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $2,069/month sits 8% lower than the Herndon citywide median ($2,259).

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Herndon Heights vs Herndon How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
35.8% +54%
Herndon: 23.3%
Average gross rent
$2,069 -8%
Herndon: $2,259
Average HH income
$118,698 -16%
Herndon: $141,418
Poverty rate
10.6% +13%
Herndon: 9.4%
Renter share
42.9% +13%
Herndon: 37.9%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Herndon Heights and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 4.7–6.2

Why Herndon Heights scores 5.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts
7.2
Rent control risk
36% of income on rent · Range 3.5–6.0 across tracts
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.6–2.7 across tracts
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
43% renter households · Range 7.7–9.4 across tracts
8.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 4.3–6.4 across tracts
5.2
Economic stress
10.6% below poverty line · Range 1.5–3.8 across tracts
2.7
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.6–5.0 across tracts
4.0
Risk score comparison

Herndon Heights vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Herndon Heights score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Herndon Heights: 5.45.4Herndon HeightsNeighborhoodParent city: 5.05.0Parent cityhost cityState: 5.35.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Herndon Heights?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square — click to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.5 points from 4.7 to 6.2. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Herndon Heights

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059481000 6.2 6,947 47% $2,305
51059480903 5.3 3,787 36% $2,169
51059480901 4.7 6,335 24% $1,750
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 64

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 58%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 54%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 57%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Herndon Heights

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 645Total filings (sum)
  • 6.20%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.0%Peak year (2016)
  • 7.57%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Herndon Heights

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Herndon Heights

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Herndon Heights?

Herndon Heights scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Herndon Heights compare to Herndon overall?

Herndon Heights scores 0.4 points higher than Herndon overall (5.0/10). Renters spend 36% of income on rent vs 23% citywide. Median rent: $2,069 vs $2,259.

Q3

What is the average rent in Herndon Heights?

Median gross rent in Herndon eviction risk Heights is $2,069/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Herndon Heights residents are renters?

43% of Herndon Heights households are renter-occupied (vs 38% in Herndon). The neighborhood has 17,069 residents.

Q5

Is Herndon Heights a high social-vulnerability area?

Herndon Heights sits in the 64th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Herndon Heights have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Herndon Heights is census tract 51059481000 (score 6.2/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.7 to 6.2 — a spread of 1.5 points.

Q7

How safe is Herndon Heights for landlords?

Herndon eviction risk Heights carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.4/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Herndon as a whole (5.0/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Herndon Heights?

Herndon Heights has 17,393 residents (Hispanic-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (48.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (23.4%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (16.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Herndon Heights

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Herndon

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Herndon Heights.

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