Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51059480903 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,787 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
51059480903 is a census tract in the Herndon Heights area of Herndon, VA. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,787. The severe-burden share is 19%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,380
Renter share51.1%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate10.0%
Median income$105,873
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Herndon and the region
Centroid at 38.9586, -77.3937 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon Heights scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.0% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$2,169 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
4.3
How Herndon Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 55%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 212Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.31%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2012)
- 48Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 26% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Herndon Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.4%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.7%Food insecurity
- 9.2%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 13.2%No health insurance
- 13.7%Frequent mental distress
- 23.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Herndon Heights
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 7.7/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.5/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 36% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. It sits 0.9 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Court records carry 212 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 9.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 6.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
Average gross rent is $2,169, close to the Herndon average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480903
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480903?
Census tract 51059480903 in the Herndon Heights neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480903?
Median gross rent is $2,169/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480903?
10.0% of residents in tract 51059480903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,787.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480903?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 32th, minority 82th, housing 55th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480903 considered part of Herndon Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480903 fall within Herndon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480903?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 212 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480903 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.31% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480903 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480903 compare to Herndon overall?
Tract 51059480903 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Herndon at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Herndon
Top eight tracts in Herndon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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