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Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally

Cherrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville

Tract 51085321003 · Hanover County, VA · pop 2,747 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 3.9/10, tract 51085321003 in the Cherrydale area of Mechanicsville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,747. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Hanover County average of 36.2%.

Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 4% Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,107
Renter share9.9%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.3%
Median income$99,273

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Cherrydale
Moderate
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 9 tracts In Mechanicsville
Moderate
Within county
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#10 of 25 tracts In Hanover County
Elevated
Within state
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#1,111 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.6225, -77.3174 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cherrydale scores 3.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,435 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4

How Cherrydale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cherrydale risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.9This tracttract 3210034.0Mechanicsvilleparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 4

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cherrydale

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Food insecurity runs 8.1% against 17.8% nationally.

At $1,435 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Mechanicsville commands. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 10% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $99,273, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321003

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321003?

Census tract 51085321003 in the Cherrydale neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51085321003?

Median gross rent is $1,435/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321003?

1.3% of residents in tract 51085321003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,747.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321003?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 16th, minority 43th, housing 5th.
Q5

Is tract 51085321003 considered part of Cherrydale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321003 fall within Cherrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51085321003 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51085321003 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321003 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Mechanicsville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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