Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally
Cherrydale Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville
Tract 51085321003 · Hanover County, VA · pop 2,747 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51085321003 runs through the Cherrydale neighborhood of Mechanicsville. With 2,747 residents, it scores $1/10 for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #22,297 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
55% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,435 a month while the average household earns $99,273 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 10% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units1,107
Renter share9.9%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate1.3%
Median income$99,273
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.6225, -77.3174 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cherrydale scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,435 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Cherrydale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.1%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.1%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 26.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cherrydale
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 4th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321003
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321003?
Census tract 51085321003 in the Cherrydale neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321003?
Median gross rent is $1,435/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321003?
1.3% of residents in tract 51085321003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,747.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321003?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 16th, minority 43th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 51085321003 considered part of Cherrydale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321003 fall within Cherrydale (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51085321003 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51085321003 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321003 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51085321100
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
1.6
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Pine Hill
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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