Neighborhood · Ranked #65,113 of 84,120 nationally

Hanover Grove Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville

Tract 51085321001 · Hanover County, VA · pop 3,609 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 51085321001 covers the Hanover Grove neighborhood of Mechanicsville in Virginia. Home to 3,609 residents, it scores 6.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 82% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 65% of renter households, a severe level, and 44% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,787 a month while the average household earns $78,950 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

2.6

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 27% Stable renters 15% Owners 58%

Tract context

Occupied units1,607

Renter share41.7%

SVI overall0.50

Poverty rate10.0%

Median income$78,950

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.6299, -77.3548 · click any tract to drill in

Why Hanover Grove scores 2.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mechanicsville

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.7

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

10.0% poverty · this tract

2.5

Supply constraint

$1,787 rent vs county FMR

5.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mechanicsville

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.4

How Hanover Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

40%Socioeconomic
65%Household composition
18%Racial/ethnic minority
62%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.9%Housing insecurity
5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
10.5%Food insecurity
9.4%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
7.4%No health insurance
14.5%Frequent mental distress
38.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Hanover Grove

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321001

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321001?

Census tract 51085321001 in the Hanover Grove neighborhood scores 2.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51085321001?

Median gross rent is $1,787/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321001?

10.0% of residents in tract 51085321001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,609.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 65th, minority 18th, housing 62th.

Is tract 51085321001 considered part of Hanover Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321001 fall within Hanover Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51085321001 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51085321001 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321001 scores 2.6/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.