Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Hanover Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mechanicsville

Tract 51085321001 · Hanover County, VA · pop 3,609 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51085321001 is a census tract in the Hanover Grove area of Mechanicsville, VA. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,609. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27% Stable renters 15% Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,607
Renter share41.7%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate10.0%
Median income$78,950

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Hanover Grove
Moderate
Within parent city
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 9 tracts In Mechanicsville
High
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 25 tracts In Hanover County
High
Within state
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#421 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.6299, -77.3548 · click any tract to drill in

Why Hanover Grove scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.0% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,787 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4

How Hanover Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Hanover Grove risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.2This tracttract 3210014.0Mechanicsvilleparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 50

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Hanover Grove

65% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Hanover County average of 36.2%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.7/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10.

Against the Hanover County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Food insecurity runs 10.5% against 17.8% nationally.

Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Average gross rent is $1,787, close to the Mechanicsville average.

Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $78,950. 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321001

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321001?

Census tract 51085321001 in the Hanover Grove neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51085321001?

Median gross rent is $1,787/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321001?

10.0% of residents in tract 51085321001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,609.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 65th, minority 18th, housing 62th.
Q5

Is tract 51085321001 considered part of Hanover Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321001 fall within Hanover Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51085321001 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51085321001 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321001 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related