Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #73,892 of 84,120 nationally
Mechanicsville Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51085321100 · Hanover County, VA · pop 5,425
With a score of 6.1/10, tract 51085321100 in Mechanicsville ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,425 residents. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 66% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 54% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,610 monthly, set against $86,382 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units2,367
Renter share14.7%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate3.9%
Median income$86,382
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
54
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
34
th percentile
Low
National
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.6129, -77.3822 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mechanicsville scores 2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,610 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Mechanicsville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 27%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 12%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.4%Housing insecurity
- 5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.3%Food insecurity
- 8.4%SNAP enrollment
- 6.0%Transit barriers
- 7.5%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 33.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mechanicsville
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 30th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321100?
Census tract 51085321100 in Mechanicsville scores 2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321100?
Median gross rent is $1,610/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321100?
3.9% of residents in tract 51085321100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,425.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 87th, minority 12th, housing 17th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 51085321100 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51085321100 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321100 scores 2/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Cherrydale
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
1.6
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Pine Hill
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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