Census Tract · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally

Mechanicsville Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 51085321100 · Hanover County, VA · pop 5,425

Census tract 51085321100 covers part of Mechanicsville, VA, and scores 4.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 54%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

4.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 5% Owners 85%

Tract context

Occupied units2,367

Renter share14.7%

SVI overall0.30

Poverty rate3.9%

Median income$86,382

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region

Centroid at 37.6129, -77.3822 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mechanicsville scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mechanicsville

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.7

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

3.9% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,610 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mechanicsville

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mechanicsville

5.4

How Mechanicsville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

27%Socioeconomic
87%Household composition
12%Racial/ethnic minority
17%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.4%Housing insecurity
5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
10.3%Food insecurity
8.4%SNAP enrollment
6.0%Transit barriers
7.5%No health insurance
15.7%Frequent mental distress
33.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mechanicsville

66% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Hanover County average of 36.2%. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10.

On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. Food insecurity runs 10.3% against 17.8% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.7/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Hanover County average of 3.9 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,610, close to the Mechanicsville average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51085321100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321100?

Census tract 51085321100 in Mechanicsville scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51085321100?

Median gross rent is $1,610/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321100?

3.9% of residents in tract 51085321100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,425.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 27th, household 87th, minority 12th, housing 17th.

What share of households in tract 51085321100 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51085321100 compare to Mechanicsville overall?

Tract 51085321100 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville

Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.