Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Pine Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville
Tract 51085321004 · Hanover County, VA · pop 4,680 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51085321004 covers part of the Pine Hill area of Mechanicsville, VA, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,697
Renter share12.1%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$122,588
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
26
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.6467, -77.3102 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pine Hill scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,851 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Pine Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.3%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pine Hill
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10.
The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 44% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Hanover County average of 36.2%. SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally.
Housing insecurity runs 7.0% against 14.2% nationally. Against the Hanover County average of 3.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.6 points.
Nationally it ranks #61,558 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 0.9 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $1,851, close to the Mechanicsville average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321004?
Census tract 51085321004 in the Pine Hill neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321004?
Median gross rent is $1,851/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321004?
1.8% of residents in tract 51085321004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,680.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 29th, minority 30th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51085321004 considered part of Pine Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321004 fall within Pine Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51085321004 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51085321004 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321004 scores 3.3/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
51085321100
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Cherrydale
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
3.4
/ 10 · Low
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