Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally
Pine Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Mechanicsville
Tract 51085321004 · Hanover County, VA · pop 4,680 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 51085321004 covers the Pine Hill area of Mechanicsville, home to 4,680 residents. For landlords it grades $1/10, an elevated reading. On the national scale it ranks #22,298 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 44% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,851 a month against an average household income of $122,588 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 12% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,697
Renter share12.1%
SVI overall0.01
Poverty rate1.8%
Median income$122,588
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
16
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mechanicsville and the region
Centroid at 37.6467, -77.3102 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pine Hill scores 1.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mechanicsville
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.7
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,851 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mechanicsville
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mechanicsville
5.4
How Pine Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 1
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.3%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pine Hill
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hanover County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 1st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51085321004
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51085321004?
Census tract 51085321004 in the Pine Hill neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51085321004?
Median gross rent is $1,851/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51085321004?
1.8% of residents in tract 51085321004 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,680.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51085321004?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 1th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 29th, minority 30th, housing 1th.
Q5
Is tract 51085321004 considered part of Pine Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51085321004 fall within Pine Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51085321004 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51085321004 compare to Mechanicsville overall?
Tract 51085321004 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Mechanicsville at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mechanicsville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mechanicsville
Top eight tracts in Mechanicsville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Hanover Grove
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
51085321100
2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sharon Park
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Cherrydale
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Sledd Run
1.6
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Gaines Mill
1.5
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Avondale
1.3
/ 10 · Very Low
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