Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #58,384 of 84,120 nationally
Gayton Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Tuckahoe
Tract 51087200136 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,184 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
The Gayton Green neighborhood of Tuckahoe anchors census tract 51087200136, which lands at 6.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 86% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 59% of renter households, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,329 a month while the average household earns $54,375 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. About 60% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,435
Renter share59.8%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$54,375
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
77
th percentile
High
Within county
55
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
54
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tuckahoe and the region
Centroid at 37.6073, -77.6276 · click any tract to drill in
Why Gayton Green scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tuckahoe
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,329 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tuckahoe
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tuckahoe
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tuckahoe
5.4
How Gayton Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 40%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.1%Housing insecurity
- 6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.1%Food insecurity
- 10.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.0%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 40.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Gayton Green
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 9.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 70th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200136
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200136?
Census tract 51087200136 in the Gayton Green neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200136?
Median gross rent is $1,329/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200136?
8.9% of residents in tract 51087200136 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,184.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200136?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 97th, minority 40th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200136 considered part of Gayton Green?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200136 fall within Gayton Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200136 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200136 compare to Tuckahoe overall?
Tract 51087200136 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Tuckahoe at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tuckahoe
Top eight tracts in Tuckahoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Grayson Hill
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Sweet Briar Park
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Tuckahoe Village West
2.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Grayson Hill
2.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Drouin Hill
1.9
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Canterbury
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
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