Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #16,032 of 84,120 nationally
Libbie Mill Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dumbarton
Tract 51087200404 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,574 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 51087200404 covers part of the Libbie Mill area of Dumbarton, VA, and scores 6.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,574. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10.
Risk score
6.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,248
Renter share52.0%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate9.3%
Median income$71,591
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region
Centroid at 37.6059, -77.5023 · click any tract to drill in
Why Libbie Mill scores 6.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.3% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,408 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.0
How Libbie Mill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 42%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 333Total filings over 2 yrs
- 26.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 33.1%Peak (2016)
- 205Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Libbie Mill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.4%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.3%Food insecurity
- 11.9%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 11.0%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 31.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Libbie Mill
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.7/10. Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.1 points.
Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10. The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against Henrico County at 47.8%, 41% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 333 filings here across 2 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 33.1% of renter households.
In a typical year about 26.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 81st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,408, close to the Dumbarton average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200404
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200404?
Census tract 51087200404 in the Libbie Mill neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200404?
Median gross rent is $1,408/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200404?
9.3% of residents in tract 51087200404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,574.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200404?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 1th, minority 55th, housing 42th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200404 considered part of Libbie Mill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200404 fall within Libbie Mill (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200404?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 333 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200404 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 26.75% of renter households, peaking at 33.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51087200404 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51087200404 compare to Dumbarton overall?
Tract 51087200404 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton
Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related