Neighborhood · Ranked #33,355 of 84,120 nationally

Libbie Mill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dumbarton

Tract 51087200502 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,030 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

The Elevated-tier score of 6.7/10 for census tract 51087200502 reflects conditions in Libbie Mill in Dumbarton, Virginia. On the national scale it ranks #8,800 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

67% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 55% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,652 a month against an average household income of $83,500 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 21% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.3

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 7% Owners 79%

Tract context

Occupied units978

Renter share21.4%

SVI overall0.44

Poverty rate5.5%

Median income$83,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region

Centroid at 37.5925, -77.4851 · click any tract to drill in

Why Libbie Mill scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Dumbarton

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

5.5% poverty · this tract

1.4

Supply constraint

$1,652 rent vs county FMR

4.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Dumbarton

8.7

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Dumbarton

7.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Dumbarton

7.3

How Libbie Mill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 44

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

55%Socioeconomic
65%Household composition
46%Racial/ethnic minority
19%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
1%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

23Total filings over 2 yrs
6.07%Avg annual filing rate
7.7%Peak (2015)
8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Libbie Mill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.9%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.7%Food insecurity
8.4%SNAP enrollment
6.4%Transit barriers
8.5%No health insurance
16.3%Frequent mental distress
29.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Libbie Mill

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dumbarton, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 44th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200502

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200502?

Census tract 51087200502 in the Libbie Mill neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200502?

Median gross rent is $1,652/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200502?

5.5% of residents in tract 51087200502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,030.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 65th, minority 46th, housing 19th.

Is tract 51087200502 considered part of Libbie Mill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200502 fall within Libbie Mill (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 23 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.07% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51087200502 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200502 compare to Dumbarton overall?

Tract 51087200502 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Dumbarton at 6.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51087200502 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton

Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.