Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Libbie Mill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dumbarton
Tract 51087200502 · Henrico County, VA · pop 2,030 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51087200502 sits in the Libbie Mill area of Lakeside, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. Population here is 2,030. Severe burden reaches 55%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units978
Renter share21.4%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$83,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dumbarton and the region
Centroid at 37.5925, -77.4851 · click any tract to drill in
Why Libbie Mill scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,652 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dumbarton
8.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dumbarton
7.3
How Libbie Mill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 65%Household composition
- 46%Racial/ethnic minority
- 19%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 1%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 23Total filings over 2 yrs
- 6.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.7%Peak (2015)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Libbie Mill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.7%Food insecurity
- 8.4%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Libbie Mill
roughly two in three of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Henrico County average of 47.8%. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.7/10.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.7/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.4/10.
At $1,652 a month, rents run 21% over what the rest of Lakeside commands. The filing record is not thin: 23 evictions over 2 years of observation.
Food insecurity runs 10.7% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2015, when 7.7% of renter households were served.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 6.1% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 42nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200502?
Census tract 51087200502 in the Libbie Mill neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200502?
Median gross rent is $1,652/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200502?
5.5% of residents in tract 51087200502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,030.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 65th, minority 46th, housing 19th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200502 considered part of Libbie Mill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200502 fall within Libbie Mill (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 23 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.07% of renter households, peaking at 7.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51087200502 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51087200502 compare to Dumbarton overall?
Tract 51087200502 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Dumbarton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dumbarton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51087200502 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dumbarton
Top eight tracts in Dumbarton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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