Census Tract · Ranked #16,650 of 84,120 nationally

Lakeside Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 51087200700 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,837 · 91% of tract blocks fall in Lakeside

Tract 51087200700, home to 3,837 residents in Lakeside, scores 7.1/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #4,131 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

79% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 46% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,465 monthly, set against $70,105 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 53% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.8

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 11% Owners 47%

Tract context

Occupied units1,734

Renter share52.9%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate17.7%

Median income$70,105

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lakeside and the region

Centroid at 37.6107, -77.4605 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lakeside scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lakeside

8.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.5

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

17.7% poverty · this tract

4.4

Supply constraint

$1,465 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lakeside

8.7

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lakeside

7.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lakeside

7.3

How Lakeside compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

59%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
54%Racial/ethnic minority
87%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
2%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

441Total filings over 2 yrs
20.07%Avg annual filing rate
21.0%Peak (2016)
224Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.8%Housing insecurity
7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
14.0%Food insecurity
13.3%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
9.6%No health insurance
14.9%Frequent mental distress
42.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lakeside

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lakeside, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200700

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200700?

Census tract 51087200700 in Lakeside scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51087200700?

Median gross rent is $1,465/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 79% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200700?

17.7% of residents in tract 51087200700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,837.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 99th, minority 54th, housing 87th.

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200700?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 441 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.07% of renter households, peaking at 21.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51087200700 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51087200700 compare to Lakeside overall?

Tract 51087200700 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Lakeside at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lakeside; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51087200700 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lakeside

Top eight tracts in Lakeside ranked by composite eviction-risk score.