Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Lakeside Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 51087200700 · Henrico County, VA · pop 3,837 · 91% of tract blocks fall in Lakeside
Census tract 51087200700 covers part of Lakeside, VA, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,837. The severe-burden share is 46%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units1,734
Renter share52.9%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.7%
Median income$70,105
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
89
th percentile
High
National
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lakeside and the region
Centroid at 37.6107, -77.4605 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lakeside scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lakeside
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.7% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,465 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lakeside
8.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lakeside
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lakeside
7.3
How Lakeside compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 2%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 441Total filings over 2 yrs
- 20.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 21.0%Peak (2016)
- 224Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 13.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 9.6%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 42.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lakeside
79% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Henrico County average of 47.8%. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.7/10.
Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.7/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10.
Against the Henrico County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 441 filings here across 2 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 21.0% of renter households.
This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 20.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 8.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200700?
Census tract 51087200700 in Lakeside scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200700?
Median gross rent is $1,465/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 79% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200700?
17.7% of residents in tract 51087200700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,837.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 99th, minority 54th, housing 87th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 441 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.07% of renter households, peaking at 21.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51087200700 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51087200700 compare to Lakeside overall?
Tract 51087200700 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Lakeside at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lakeside; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 51087200700 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lakeside
Top eight tracts in Lakeside ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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