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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally

Seneca Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Lowes Island

Tract 51107611204 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 5,268 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51107611204 (Seneca Green in Lowes Island, Virginia) comes in at 5.9/10, the Moderate tier. On the national scale it ranks #25,074 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 57% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,288 a month while the average household earns $160,139 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 9% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 4% Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,679
Renter share9.1%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate8.3%
Median income$160,139

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Seneca Green
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Lowes Island
Very High
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#18 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
High
Within state
19 th percentile
Rank, 19th percentileLowHigh
#1,772 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region

Centroid at 39.0391, -77.3726 · click any tract to drill in

Why Seneca Green scores 1.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.3% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,288 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.4

How Seneca Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Seneca Green risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.41.4This tracttract 611204Lowes Island: 3.33.3Lowes Islandparent cityCounty: 1.31.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 44

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 6Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 1.85%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.9%Peak (2016)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Seneca Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Seneca Green

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lowes Island, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 1.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.9% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611204

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611204?

Census tract 51107611204 in the Seneca Green neighborhood scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611204?

Median gross rent is $2,288/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611204?

8.3% of residents in tract 51107611204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,268.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611204?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 71th, minority 71th, housing 12th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611204 considered part of Seneca Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611204 fall within Seneca Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611204?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611204 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.85% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611204 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611204 compare to Lowes Island overall?

Tract 51107611204 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island

Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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