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Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally

Montebello Eviction Risk: Lower , Sterling

Tract 51107611205 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,985 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

For landlords sizing up Montebello in Sterling, census tract 51107611205 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.8/10. It lands near the 67th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 53% of renter households, a severe level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,402 a month while the average household earns $151,875 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 26% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 12% Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,786
Renter share25.5%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$151,875

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Montebello
Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Sterling
Very Low
Within county
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#36 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Moderate
Within state
9 th percentile
Rank, 9th percentileLowHigh
#1,987 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Sterling and the region

Centroid at 39.0253, -77.3787 · click any tract to drill in

Why Montebello scores 1.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Sterling
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,402 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sterling
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sterling
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sterling
5.4

How Montebello compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Montebello risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.11.1This tracttract 611205Sterling: 3.53.5Sterlingparent cityCounty: 1.31.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 45

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 21Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 4.51%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.5%Peak (2016)
  • 21Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Montebello. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Montebello

What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 7.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Sterling eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 45th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611205

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611205?

Census tract 51107611205 in the Montebello neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611205?

Median gross rent is $2,402/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611205?

4.0% of residents in tract 51107611205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,985.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611205?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 18th, minority 77th, housing 59th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611205 considered part of Montebello?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611205 fall within Montebello (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611205?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611205 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.51% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611205 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611205 compare to Sterling overall?

Tract 51107611205 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Sterling at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sterling eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sterling

Top eight tracts in Sterling ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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