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Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Seneca Green Eviction Risk: Lower , Lowes Island

Tract 51107611209 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 6,467 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

With a score of 3.5/10, tract 51107611209 in the Seneca Green area of Lowes Island, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,467. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 7% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units2,234
Renter share11.3%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate0.9%
Median income$200,717

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Seneca Green
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Lowes Island
Very Low
Within county
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#69 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Very Low
Within state
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#1,425 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region

Centroid at 39.0393, -77.3515 · click any tract to drill in

Why Seneca Green scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,668 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
3.4

How Seneca Green compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Seneca Green risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.5This tracttract 6112093.8Lowes Islandparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 7Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 6.36%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.4%Peak (2016)
  • 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Seneca Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Seneca Green

Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Food insecurity runs 6.2% against 17.8% nationally. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. The voucher gap is 15.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Court records carry 7 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Filings peaked in 2016 at 6.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.2/10.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611209

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611209?

Census tract 51107611209 in the Seneca Green neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611209?

Median gross rent is $2,668/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611209?

0.9% of residents in tract 51107611209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,467.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611209?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 46th, minority 53th, housing 9th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611209 considered part of Seneca Green?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611209 fall within Seneca Green (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611209?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.36% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611209 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611209 compare to Lowes Island overall?

Tract 51107611209 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island

Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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