Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally
Montebello Eviction Risk: Elevated , Sterling
Tract 51107611501 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,086 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51107611501 is a census tract in the Montebello area of Dulles Town Center, VA. It scores 6.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,086 residents. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 54%
Owners 18%
Tract context
Occupied units1,649
Renter share82.5%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate5.9%
Median income$98,497
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sterling and the region
Centroid at 39.0311, -77.4136 · click any tract to drill in
Why Montebello scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sterling
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.9% poverty · this tract
1.5
Supply constraint
$2,153 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sterling
4.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sterling
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sterling
4.3
How Montebello compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 86%Socioeconomic
- 33%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 108Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2016)
- 108Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Montebello. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.2%Food insecurity
- 9.0%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 10.3%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 24.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Montebello
Against the Loudoun County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.7 points. 83% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 108 filings here across 1 tracked years.
At $2,153 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Dulles Town Center commands. The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.6/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.6 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611501?
Census tract 51107611501 in the Montebello neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611501?
Median gross rent is $2,153/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611501?
5.9% of residents in tract 51107611501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,086.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 33th, minority 76th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611501 considered part of Montebello?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611501 fall within Montebello (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 108 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.87% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611501 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611501 compare to Sterling overall?
Tract 51107611501 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Sterling at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sterling eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Related