Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Blandsford Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall
Tract 51153901232 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,141 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
51153901232 is a census tract in the Blandsford area of Buckhall, VA. It scores 3.5/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 70%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,739
Renter share2.7%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$181,681
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
48
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Buckhall and the region
Centroid at 38.7198, -77.4409 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blandsford scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$3,045 rent vs county FMR
8.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2
How Blandsford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 14%Socioeconomic
- 5%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.88%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.9%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.9%Food insecurity
- 7.6%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 26.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blandsford
about three-quarters of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Prince William County average of 43.3%. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. The voucher gap is 31.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.4/10. Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.2/10. Average gross rent is $3,045, 23% above the Buckhall average.
Court records carry 6 eviction filings across 1 observed years. SNAP participation runs 7.6% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2016, when 5.9% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 5.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 3% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901232
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901232?
Census tract 51153901232 in the Blandsford neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901232?
Median gross rent is $3,045/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901232?
5.8% of residents in tract 51153901232 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,141.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901232?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 5th, minority 63th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901232 considered part of Blandsford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901232 fall within Blandsford (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901232?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901232 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.88% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901232 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901232 compare to Buckhall overall?
Tract 51153901232 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall
Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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