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Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally

Blandsford Eviction Risk: Lower , Buckhall

Tract 51153901232 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,141 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

How risky is the Blandsford neighborhood of Buckhall for landlords? Census tract 51153901232 scores 6.2/10, the Elevated tier. On the national scale it ranks #17,441 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 77% of renter households, a severe level, and 70% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,045 a month while the average household earns $181,681 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 3% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 1% Owners 97%
Tract context
Occupied units1,739
Renter share2.7%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$181,681

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Blandsford
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Buckhall
Elevated
Within county
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#58 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Low
Within state
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#1,847 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buckhall and the region

Centroid at 38.7198, -77.4409 · click any tract to drill in

Why Blandsford scores 1.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buckhall
6.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$3,045 rent vs county FMR
8.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buckhall
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buckhall
3.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buckhall
5.2

How Blandsford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Blandsford risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.31.3This tracttract 901232Buckhall: 3.43.4Buckhallparent cityCounty: 1.91.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 6Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.9%Peak (2016)
  • 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Blandsford

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 8.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 13th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901232

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901232?

Census tract 51153901232 in the Blandsford neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901232?

Median gross rent is $3,045/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901232?

5.8% of residents in tract 51153901232 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,141.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901232?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 5th, minority 63th, housing 32th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901232 considered part of Blandsford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901232 fall within Blandsford (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901232?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901232 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.88% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901232 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901232 compare to Buckhall overall?

Tract 51153901232 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Buckhall at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buckhall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buckhall

Top eight tracts in Buckhall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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