Neighborhood · Ranked #48,314 of 84,120 nationally

Merrimont Trace Eviction Risk: Moderate , Linton Hall

Tract 51153901415 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,403 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 51153901415, home to 4,403 residents in the Merrimont Trace neighborhood of Linton Hall, scores 4.5/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 22% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 7% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a modest level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,859 a month against an average household income of $163,618 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 13% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 12% Owners 87%

Tract context

Occupied units1,383

Renter share12.9%

SVI overall0.02

Poverty rate1.0%

Median income$163,618

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region

Centroid at 38.7410, -77.5721 · click any tract to drill in

Why Merrimont Trace scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Linton Hall

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,859 rent vs county FMR

7.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Linton Hall

4.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Linton Hall

2.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Linton Hall

3.0

How Merrimont Trace compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 2

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

7%Socioeconomic
15%Household composition
51%Racial/ethnic minority
1%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

6Total filings over 1 yrs
6.98%Avg annual filing rate
7.0%Peak (2016)
6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.8%Housing insecurity
4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
7.5%Food insecurity
4.8%SNAP enrollment
4.9%Transit barriers
5.9%No health insurance
14.5%Frequent mental distress
21.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Merrimont Trace

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 7.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 6 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 7.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.0% of renter households in 2016.

In CDC survey modeling, about 7.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901415

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901415?

Census tract 51153901415 in the Merrimont Trace neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901415?

Median gross rent is $2,859/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 7% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901415?

1.0% of residents in tract 51153901415 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,403.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901415?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 15th, minority 51th, housing 1th.

Is tract 51153901415 considered part of Merrimont Trace?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901415 fall within Merrimont Trace (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901415?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901415 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.98% of renter households, peaking at 7.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901415 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901415 compare to Linton Hall overall?

Tract 51153901415 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall

Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.