Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,480 of 84,120 nationally
Crossman Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Linton Hall
Tract 51153901420 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,328 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
In the Crossman Creek area of Linton Hall, census tract 51153901420 scores 5.9/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #25,082 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
56% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,167 a month while the average household earns $208,750 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 8% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,136
Renter share7.7%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate0.6%
Median income$208,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
35
th percentile
Low
Within state
47
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region
Centroid at 38.7715, -77.5594 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crossman Creek scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,167 rent vs county FMR
8.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0
How Crossman Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 21.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crossman Creek
The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 8.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 7th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901420
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901420?
Census tract 51153901420 in the Crossman Creek neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901420?
Median gross rent is $3,167/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901420?
0.6% of residents in tract 51153901420 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,328.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901420?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 26th, minority 61th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901420 considered part of Crossman Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901420 fall within Crossman Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901420 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901420 compare to Linton Hall overall?
Tract 51153901420 scores 4.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Linton Hall at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall
Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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