Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Crossman Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Linton Hall
Tract 51153901420 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,328 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
With a score of 3/10, tract 51153901420 in the Crossman Creek area of Linton Hall, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,328 residents. The voucher gap is 36.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 93%
Tract context
Occupied units1,136
Renter share7.7%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate0.6%
Median income$208,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
4
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Linton Hall and the region
Centroid at 38.7715, -77.5594 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crossman Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Linton Hall
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,167 rent vs county FMR
8.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Linton Hall
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Linton Hall
2.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Linton Hall
3.0
How Crossman Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 7
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.3%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 21.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crossman Creek
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. 56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.7/10. Average gross rent is $3,167, 23% above the Linton Hall average.
It sits 1.1 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1. SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.3% against 17.8% nationally. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 1.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901420
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901420?
Census tract 51153901420 in the Crossman Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901420?
Median gross rent is $3,167/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901420?
0.6% of residents in tract 51153901420 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,328.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901420?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 26th, minority 61th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901420 considered part of Crossman Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901420 fall within Crossman Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901420 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901420 compare to Linton Hall overall?
Tract 51153901420 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Linton Hall at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Linton Hall eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Linton Hall
Top eight tracts in Linton Hall ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related