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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

West Gate of Lomond Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sudley

Tract 51153901601 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,688 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51153901601 covers part of the West Gate of Lomond area of Sudley, VA, and scores 5.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,688 residents. 68% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 4% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,019
Renter share25.4%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.1%
Median income$80,387

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In West Gate of Lomond
Moderate
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Sudley
Very High
Within county
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#9 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#147 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Sudley and the region

Centroid at 38.7875, -77.4940 · click any tract to drill in

Why West Gate of Lomond scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Sudley
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
17.1% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$2,567 rent vs county FMR
6.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sudley
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sudley
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sudley
6.5

How West Gate of Lomond compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
West Gate of Lomond risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.9This tracttract 9016014.5Sudleyparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 9Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 3.81%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.8%Peak (2016)
  • 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in West Gate of Lomond

83% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Prince William County average of 43.3%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $80,387, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

It sits 1.8 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10.

At $2,567 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of Sudley commands. Adults with no health insurance runs 21.5% against 11.3% nationally.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 9 filings here across 1 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 3.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.8% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 8.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901601

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901601?

Census tract 51153901601 in the West Gate of Lomond neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153901601?

Median gross rent is $2,567/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901601?

17.1% of residents in tract 51153901601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,688.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 89th, minority 84th, housing 66th.
Q5

Is tract 51153901601 considered part of West Gate of Lomond?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901601 fall within West Gate of Lomond (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901601?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.81% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153901601 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153901601 compare to Sudley overall?

Tract 51153901601 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Sudley at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sudley; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sudley

Top eight tracts in Sudley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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