Neighborhood · Ranked #42,790 of 84,120 nationally

Bull Run East Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sudley

Tract 51153901602 · Prince William County, VA · pop 8,377 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

In the Bull Run East neighborhood of Sudley, census tract 51153901602 scores 6.4/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 84th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

49% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,135 a month while the average household earns $96,203 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. Renters make up 39% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.6

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 20% Owners 61%

Tract context

Occupied units2,639

Renter share38.7%

SVI overall0.37

Poverty rate2.5%

Median income$96,203

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Sudley and the region

Centroid at 38.7965, -77.4982 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bull Run East scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Sudley

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

2.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,135 rent vs county FMR

4.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Sudley

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Sudley

8.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Sudley

6.5

How Bull Run East compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

48%Socioeconomic
31%Household composition
78%Racial/ethnic minority
19%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

104Total filings over 1 yrs
9.82%Avg annual filing rate
9.8%Peak (2016)
104Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.6%Housing insecurity
8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
16.7%Food insecurity
11.4%SNAP enrollment
8.8%Transit barriers
14.7%No health insurance
16.2%Frequent mental distress
29.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bull Run East

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Sudley, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 104 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 9.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.8% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 37th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901602

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901602?

Census tract 51153901602 in the Bull Run East neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901602?

Median gross rent is $2,135/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901602?

2.5% of residents in tract 51153901602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,377.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 31th, minority 78th, housing 19th.

Is tract 51153901602 considered part of Bull Run East?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901602 fall within Bull Run East (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901602?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 104 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.82% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901602 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901602 compare to Sudley overall?

Tract 51153901602 scores 4.6/10, lower than the parent city of Sudley at 5.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sudley; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sudley

Top eight tracts in Sudley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.