Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Bull Run East Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sudley
Tract 51153901602 · Prince William County, VA · pop 8,377 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 4.7/10, tract 51153901602 in the Bull Run East area of Sudley, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units2,639
Renter share38.7%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate2.5%
Median income$96,203
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sudley and the region
Centroid at 38.7965, -77.4982 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bull Run East scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sudley
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,135 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sudley
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sudley
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sudley
6.5
How Bull Run East compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 19%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 104Total filings over 1 yrs
- 9.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.8%Peak (2016)
- 104Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.7%Food insecurity
- 11.4%SNAP enrollment
- 8.8%Transit barriers
- 14.7%No health insurance
- 16.2%Frequent mental distress
- 29.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bull Run East
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. Severe burden reaches 24%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. Cost burden runs roughly one in two here against 43.3% across Prince William County.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 104 filings here across 1 tracked years. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. The worst year on record was 2016, when 9.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 9.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.3/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Average gross rent is $2,135, close to the Sudley average. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $96,203.
39% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901602?
Census tract 51153901602 in the Bull Run East neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901602?
Median gross rent is $2,135/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901602?
2.5% of residents in tract 51153901602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,377.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 31th, minority 78th, housing 19th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901602 considered part of Bull Run East?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901602 fall within Bull Run East (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901602?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 104 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.82% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901602 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901602 compare to Sudley overall?
Tract 51153901602 scores 4.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Sudley at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sudley; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sudley
Top eight tracts in Sudley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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