Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally
Stafford Lakes Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Southern Gateway
Tract 51179010307 · Stafford County, VA · pop 7,570 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 51179010307 runs through the Stafford Lakes Village neighborhood of Southern Gateway. With 7,570 residents, it scores 6.3/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 82% of US census tracts.
80% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,183 monthly, set against $131,250 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 22% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units3,140
Renter share21.7%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate5.1%
Median income$131,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Southern Gateway and the region
Centroid at 38.3456, -77.5376 · click any tract to drill in
Why Stafford Lakes Village scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Southern Gateway
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.1% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,183 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Southern Gateway
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Southern Gateway
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Southern Gateway
5.1
How Stafford Lakes Village compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 32%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 42%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 6.3%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 26.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Stafford Lakes Village
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Southern Gateway, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stafford County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 23rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010307
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010307?
Census tract 51179010307 in the Stafford Lakes Village neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010307?
Median gross rent is $2,183/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 80% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010307?
5.1% of residents in tract 51179010307 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,570.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010307?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 32th, minority 54th, housing 42th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010307 considered part of Stafford Lakes Village?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010307 fall within Stafford Lakes Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010307 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010307 compare to Southern Gateway overall?
Tract 51179010307 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Southern Gateway at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Southern Gateway; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Southern Gateway
Top eight tracts in Southern Gateway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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