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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Stafford Lakes Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Southern Gateway

Tract 51179010307 · Stafford County, VA · pop 7,570 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 5.6/10, tract 51179010307 in the Stafford Lakes Village area of Southern Gateway, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,570. Against Stafford County at 41.0%, 80% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 4% Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units3,140
Renter share21.7%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate5.1%
Median income$131,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Stafford Lakes Village
Moderate
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Southern Gateway
Very Low
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#226 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Southern Gateway and the region

Centroid at 38.3456, -77.5376 · click any tract to drill in

Why Stafford Lakes Village scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Southern Gateway
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.1% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,183 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Southern Gateway
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Southern Gateway
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Southern Gateway
5.1

How Stafford Lakes Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Stafford Lakes Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.6This tracttract 0103075.9Southern Gatewayparent city4.5Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 23

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Stafford Lakes Village

The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10.

Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.3/10.

Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally. SNAP participation runs 6.3% against 15.2% nationally.

Nationally it ranks #22,681 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Average gross rent is $2,183, close to the Southern Gateway average.

Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $131,250.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010307

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010307?

Census tract 51179010307 in the Stafford Lakes Village neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010307?

Median gross rent is $2,183/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 80% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010307?

5.1% of residents in tract 51179010307 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,570.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010307?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 32th, minority 54th, housing 42th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010307 considered part of Stafford Lakes Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010307 fall within Stafford Lakes Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51179010307 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51179010307 compare to Southern Gateway overall?

Tract 51179010307 scores 5.6/10, lower than the parent city of Southern Gateway at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Southern Gateway; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Southern Gateway

Top eight tracts in Southern Gateway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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