Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,660 of 84,120 nationally
Locust Knolls Eviction Risk: Lower , Southern Gateway
Tract 51179010304 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,231 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
In the Locust Knolls area of Southern Gateway, census tract 51179010304 scores 6.1/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 38% of renter households, a high level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,961 a month while the average household earns $93,153 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units2,623
Renter share25.3%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate13.3%
Median income$93,153
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
56
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Southern Gateway and the region
Centroid at 38.3631, -77.4781 · click any tract to drill in
Why Locust Knolls scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Southern Gateway
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.3% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,961 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Southern Gateway
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Southern Gateway
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Southern Gateway
5.1
How Locust Knolls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 432Total filings over 2 yrs
- 22.03%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.3%Peak (2015)
- 181Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.0%Food insecurity
- 12.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 34.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Locust Knolls
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Southern Gateway, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stafford County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 432 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 22.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 26.3% of renter households in 2015.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 31st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010304?
Census tract 51179010304 in the Locust Knolls neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010304?
Median gross rent is $1,961/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010304?
13.3% of residents in tract 51179010304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,231.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 61th, minority 63th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010304 considered part of Locust Knolls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010304 fall within Locust Knolls (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 432 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.03% of renter households, peaking at 26.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010304 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51179010304 compare to Southern Gateway overall?
Tract 51179010304 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Southern Gateway at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Southern Gateway; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Southern Gateway
Top eight tracts in Southern Gateway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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