Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Locust Knolls Eviction Risk: Elevated , Southern Gateway
Tract 51179010304 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,231 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 7.3/10, tract 51179010304 in the Locust Knolls area of Southern Gateway, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,231 residents. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.8 points.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units2,623
Renter share25.3%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate13.3%
Median income$93,153
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Southern Gateway and the region
Centroid at 38.3631, -77.4781 · click any tract to drill in
Why Locust Knolls scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Southern Gateway
7.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.3% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,961 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Southern Gateway
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Southern Gateway
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Southern Gateway
5.1
How Locust Knolls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 35%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 432Total filings over 2 yrs
- 22.03%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.3%Peak (2015)
- 181Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.0%Food insecurity
- 12.3%SNAP enrollment
- 8.5%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 34.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Locust Knolls
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10.
The filing record is not thin: 432 evictions over 2 years of observation. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.1/10.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 26.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 22.0% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 38% of renters. Average gross rent is $1,961, close to the Southern Gateway average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010304?
Census tract 51179010304 in the Locust Knolls neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010304?
Median gross rent is $1,961/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010304?
13.3% of residents in tract 51179010304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,231.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 35th, household 61th, minority 63th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010304 considered part of Locust Knolls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010304 fall within Locust Knolls (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 432 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.03% of renter households, peaking at 26.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010304 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51179010304 compare to Southern Gateway overall?
Tract 51179010304 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Southern Gateway at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Southern Gateway; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Southern Gateway
Top eight tracts in Southern Gateway ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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