Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally
Carytown Eviction Risk: Lower , Richmond
Tract 51760040900 · Richmond city, VA · pop 2,647 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
The Carytown area of Richmond anchors census tract 51760040900, which lands at 5.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 70% of US census tracts.
37% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 6% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,613 monthly, set against $90,909 in average yearly household income, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 68% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 43%
Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units1,206
Renter share67.9%
SVI overall0.04
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$90,909
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5550, -77.4782 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carytown scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,613 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Carytown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 4
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 13%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 30%Grade B
- 45%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 88Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.41%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.6%Peak (2013)
- 21Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Carytown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.7%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.4%Food insecurity
- 4.8%SNAP enrollment
- 5.0%Transit barriers
- 5.3%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 21.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carytown
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 6.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 4th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760040900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760040900?
Census tract 51760040900 in the Carytown neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760040900?
Median gross rent is $1,613/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760040900?
5.3% of residents in tract 51760040900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,647.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760040900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 4th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 1th, minority 13th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 51760040900 considered part of Carytown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760040900 fall within Carytown (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760040900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 88 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760040900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.41% of renter households, peaking at 2.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760040900 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760040900 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760040900 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760040900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Creighton Court
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Fairmount
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Montrose Heights
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
South Garden
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
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