Neighborhood · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally

Cherry Gardens Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond

Tract 51760070902 · Richmond city, VA · pop 3,092 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

The Cherry Gardens area of Richmond is where census tract 51760070902 sits, home to 3,092 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.7/10. That is riskier than roughly 90% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 52% of renter households, a severe level, and 31% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,248 a month while the average household earns $45,813 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 73% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 35% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units874

Renter share72.8%

SVI overall0.78

Poverty rate23.5%

Median income$45,813

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.4912, -77.4596 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cherry Gardens scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

23.5% poverty · this tract

5.9

Supply constraint

$1,248 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How Cherry Gardens compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

69%Socioeconomic
49%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
84%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

24.5%Housing insecurity
16.9%Utility-shutoff threat
31.4%Food insecurity
30.9%SNAP enrollment
15.6%Transit barriers
15.7%No health insurance
18.8%Frequent mental distress
45.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cherry Gardens

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 24.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760070902

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760070902?

Census tract 51760070902 in the Cherry Gardens neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760070902?

Median gross rent is $1,248/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760070902?

23.5% of residents in tract 51760070902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,092.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760070902?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 49th, minority 88th, housing 84th.

Is tract 51760070902 considered part of Cherry Gardens?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760070902 fall within Cherry Gardens (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760070902 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760070902 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760070902 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 51760070902 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.