Cherry Gardens Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. This is a renter market: 73% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. SNAP participation is 30.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 2.3/10.

The poverty rate is 24%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity affects 31.4% of adults, 13.6 points above the national rate. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2.5/10.

At $1,248 a month, rents sit 9% under what the rest of Richmond commands. That places it #12 of 54 neighborhoods in Richmond. For a like-for-like read, Fairmount and Clopton score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.5/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.