Neighborhood · Ranked #9,878 of 84,120 nationally

South Garden Eviction Risk: Elevated , Richmond

Tract 51760070803 · Richmond city, VA · pop 4,510 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51760070803 sits in the South Garden area of Richmond eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.9/10. On the national scale it ranks #6,284 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 57% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 40% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,042 a month against an average household income of $37,411 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. Renters make up 56% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.2

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 24% Owners 44%

Tract context

Occupied units2,014

Renter share55.5%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate33.1%

Median income$37,411

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Richmond and the region

Centroid at 37.4813, -77.4895 · click any tract to drill in

Why South Garden scores 6.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Richmond

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

33.1% poverty · this tract

8.3

Supply constraint

$1,042 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Richmond

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Richmond

6.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Richmond

5.0

How South Garden compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

99%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
89%Racial/ethnic minority
74%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

28.8%Housing insecurity
20.1%Utility-shutoff threat
36.7%Food insecurity
36.5%SNAP enrollment
18.2%Transit barriers
19.1%No health insurance
20.7%Frequent mental distress
43.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South Garden

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 8.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 28.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 20.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 95th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51760070803

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760070803?

Census tract 51760070803 in the South Garden neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51760070803?

Median gross rent is $1,042/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51760070803?

33.1% of residents in tract 51760070803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,510.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51760070803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 78th, minority 89th, housing 74th.

Is tract 51760070803 considered part of South Garden?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760070803 fall within South Garden (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51760070803 struggle to pay rent?

About 28.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51760070803 compare to Richmond overall?

Tract 51760070803 scores 6.2/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Richmond

Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.