Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
South Garden Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760070803 ·
Richmond city, VA · pop 4,510 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51760070803 sits in the South Garden area of Richmond eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.7/10. Population here is 4,510. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32%Stable renters 24%Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units2,014
Renter share55.5%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate33.1%
Median income$37,411
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In South Garden
Moderate
Within parent city
100th percentile
#1 of 75 tracts In Richmond
Very High
Within county
99th percentile
#2 of 75 tracts In Richmond city
Very High
Within state
91th percentile
#188 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.4813, -77.4895 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Garden scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
33.1% poverty · this tract
8.3
Supply constraint
$1,042 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How South Garden compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 95
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
99%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
89%Racial/ethnic minority
74%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
28.8%Housing insecurity
20.1%Utility-shutoff threat
36.7%Food insecurity
36.5%SNAP enrollment
18.2%Transit barriers
19.1%No health insurance
20.7%Frequent mental distress
43.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Garden
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10. Food insecurity runs 36.7% against 17.8% nationally.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.1/10. The poverty rate is 33%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $37,411, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Housing insecurity runs 28.8% against 14.2% nationally. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.4/10.
Average gross rent is $1,042, 24% below the Richmond average. It sits 1.4 points above the Richmond City average of 4.3.
Against Richmond City at 50.2%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760070803
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760070803?
Census tract 51760070803 in the South Garden neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760070803?
Median gross rent is $1,042/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760070803?
33.1% of residents in tract 51760070803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,510.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760070803?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 78th, minority 89th, housing 74th.
Q5
Is tract 51760070803 considered part of South Garden?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760070803 fall within South Garden (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51760070803 struggle to pay rent?
About 28.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51760070803 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760070803 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.