McKendree Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

Against a Houston baseline of 32.1%, 61% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. At $2,122 a month, rents sit 56% over what the rest of Houston commands.

The voucher gap is 38.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Sitting well above the midpoint is supply constraint at 8.9/10. The poverty rate is 31%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the high side is economic stress at 7.7/10.

The filing record is not thin: 125 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2012, when filings touched 15.0% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 7.2% in 2015, is well off that peak.

Among the 397 mapped neighborhoods of Houston, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. At 8% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, North Shadydale and Grand Vista Lakes score within a fraction of it.

One tract means one number: 5.1/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.