Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Bexley Eviction Risk: Moderate , Manchester
Tract 51041100209 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 6,499 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51041100209 is a census tract in the Bexley area of Manchester, VA. It scores 5.1/10 for landlords. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,746
Renter share19.9%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$83,342
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Manchester and the region
Centroid at 37.4772, -77.5439 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bexley scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Manchester
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,361 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Manchester
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Manchester
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Manchester
7.4
How Bexley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 70%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 500Total filings over 7 yrs
- 18.18%Avg annual filing rate
- 23.6%Peak (2011)
- 62Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.0%Food insecurity
- 10.3%SNAP enrollment
- 7.4%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bexley
Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10.
49% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Chesterfield County average of 42.3%. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 500 filings here across 7 tracked years.
Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Average gross rent is $1,361, 13% below the Manchester average. The worst year on record was 2011, when 23.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 18.2% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100209?
Census tract 51041100209 in the Bexley neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100209?
Median gross rent is $1,361/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100209?
9.0% of residents in tract 51041100209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,499.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 70th, minority 64th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100209 considered part of Bexley?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100209 fall within Bexley (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 500 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.18% of renter households, peaking at 23.6% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100209 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100209 compare to Manchester overall?
Tract 51041100209 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Manchester at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manchester; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Manchester
Top eight tracts in Manchester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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