Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Watch Run Eviction Risk: Moderate , Meadowbrook
Tract 51041100805 · Chesterfield County, VA · pop 4,640 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51041100805 covers part of the Watch Run area of Meadowbrook, VA, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units1,843
Renter share19.3%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate14.8%
Median income$76,623
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
86
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Meadowbrook and the region
Centroid at 37.4305, -77.4844 · click any tract to drill in
Why Watch Run scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Meadowbrook
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
14.8% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,803 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Meadowbrook
6.4
How Watch Run compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 86%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 524Total filings over 7 yrs
- 22.40%Avg annual filing rate
- 28.2%Peak (2013)
- 57Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.4%Housing insecurity
- 11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.0%Food insecurity
- 18.7%SNAP enrollment
- 11.4%Transit barriers
- 14.2%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 35.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Watch Run
The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.6/10. Against the Chesterfield County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.
Against Chesterfield County at 42.3%, 37% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
The filing record is not thin: 524 evictions over 7 years of observation. At $1,803 a month, rents run 14% over what the rest of Meadowbrook commands.
Filings peaked in 2013 at 28.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 22.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51041100805
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51041100805?
Census tract 51041100805 in the Watch Run neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51041100805?
Median gross rent is $1,803/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51041100805?
14.8% of residents in tract 51041100805 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,640.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51041100805?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 86th, minority 76th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 51041100805 considered part of Watch Run?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51041100805 fall within Watch Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51041100805?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 524 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 51041100805 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.40% of renter households, peaking at 28.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51041100805 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51041100805 compare to Meadowbrook overall?
Tract 51041100805 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Meadowbrook at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Meadowbrook; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Meadowbrook
Top eight tracts in Meadowbrook ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related